Insights

Arbion Observations, Halftime - July 2025

Arbion Observations, Halftime - July 2025

In the latest Halftime edition of Observations, Arbion’s Chief Investment Officer, Marco Pabst, reflects on the first half of 2025, highlighting how markets have largely shrugged off headline-driven volatility to deliver strong gains. World equities rose over 9%, led by standout performances in cyclical economies like South Korea and Germany. A sharp rally from April to June propelled indices such as the NASDAQ and MSCI World to new all-time highs, despite ongoing macro jitters and softening global growth forecasts.

While earnings expectations are moderating and the dollar has seen its weakest start to the year since 1973, Pabst cautions that both US equities and the USD appear stretched in opposite directions, suggesting a tactical opportunity to hedge risk assets over the quieter summer months. Amid a backdrop of monetary policy divergence and extended safe-haven trades in gold and Bitcoin, Arbion’s view remains constructive but tactically measured.

Download and read the full observation here.


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